Juggling With Knives: Profits, protection and planning for volatility in stocks, bonds, real estate, and real life.
This website is based on my book, Juggling with Knives. Both the book and website are about volatility in everything from stocks and bonds to real estate, and real life topics such as jobs and education.
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I bought this position in the Pro Shares Short 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (TBX) in my Volatility Portfolio on February 2, 2018, back in the days when it looked like the Federal Reserve was firmly locked into a policy of interest rate increases. An interest rate increase pushes down the prices of existing bonds with lower coupon yields–which would produce gains for an ETF like this short Treasury bonds. With the Fed’s reversal of policy course at the end of 2018 and with an interest rate cut almost certain at the Fed’s July 31 meeting, being short Treasuries no longer makes sense. I’ve been adding long Treasury ETFs since the beginning of June while looking for a time to exit this short ETF.read more
Treasury prices have been a little weak over the last two weeks. As a consequence the Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and the Vanguard Short Term Treasury ETF (VGSH), for example, have dropped from highs on June 25 of $66.03 and $60.94, respectively, to $$65.56 and $60.75 at 3 .p.m New York time today. Not much of a slide but still an opportunity to add to or establish positions ahead of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its July 31 and September 18 meetingsread more
On July 5 Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) and partner Pfizer (PFE) announced update results of a Phase 1/2 study of Sangamo’s SB-525 gene therapy for severe hemophilia A. The companies also announced that the U.S. Food & Drug Administration had granted regenerative medicine advanced therapy (RMAT) designation to SB-525. RMAT status is given to therapies intended to treat, modify, reverse or cure a serious condition and to address an unmet medical need. The designation comes with all the benefits of FDA fast-track and breakthrough therapy designation programs and is designed to accelerate clinical and approval timelines for promising drug candidates.read more
On June 26 I added Constellation Brands (STZ), my No. 2 pick in my 5 Best Value Picks Special Report on my JubakAm.com subscription site to my Volatility Portfolio. Today, June 28, Constellation Brands closed 4.73% higher on final first quarter earnings.read more
Adding Palo Alto Networks, #6 in my 10 Best Picks for the Rest of 2019 on JubakM.com, to my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios tomorrow
Today I made Palo Alto Networks (PANW) the sixth pick in my Special Report 10 Best Picks for the Rest of 2019 on my JubakAM.com subscription site. Tomorrow, June 28, I’ll add these shares to my Jubak Picks Portfolio and my Volatility Portfolio with a target price of $260. The stock closed at $204.89 today, June 27. Catalysts to drive this shares of this cyber security company higher? Let me count them.read more
Adding Call Options on Parsley Energy–No. 7 in my Best Picks for 2019–to my Volatility Portfolio today
Today I’m adding Parsley Energy (PE) January 17, 2020 Call Options with a strike of $20 (PE200117C00020000) to my Volatility Portfolio.read more
$416 billion for seawalls in the United States by 2040–that’s a lot of gravel sales for Vulcan Materials
In the next 20 years spending on seawalls to protect communities could cost as much as the initial investment in the interstate highway system. Total spending to defend against rising ocean levels could run to $416 billion in the next 20 years, according to a report from the Center for Climate Integrity. Coming as it does just days after the Trump administration gutted the Obama administration’s regulations to reduce carbon emissions from power plants, the report raises a number of rather “interesting” questions.read more
Despite the challenging words from Fed chair Jerome Powell pledging that that he will serve his full term, I think it’s likely that the Trump White House sees the continued shift of the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates to neutral to a bias toward interest rate cuts in 2019 as a sign that the Federal Reserve is yielding to political pressure from President Donald Trump. My observation of this administration leads me to conclude that when Trump thinks he sees a weakness in his opponent, he ramps up the pressure. Winning re-election in 2020 depends to a large extent on the health of the U.S. economy, which increases the President’s motivation to press the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2019.read more
Again. I’m adding the January 17, 2020 Call Options with a strike at $35 on Nektar Theraeutics (NKTR) to my Volatility Portfolio on JubakAM.com and JugglingWithKnives.com. (Ticker on these options is NKTR200117C00035000.) The underlying shares closed at $33.70, up 0.90% on June 14. I’ve traded these options before with a spectacular realized gain of better than 2000% the first time and a disappointing loss of nearly 100% on part of those profits on the second try. So please don’t discount the risk in this pick.read more
Oil slumped to its lowest in almost five months and international benchmark Brent crude book below $60 a barrel today, June 12. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 4% today to $51.14 a barrel, threatening the $50 a barrel psychological benchmark. Brent fell 3.89% to $59.87 a barrel.read more