Juggling With Knives: Profits, protection and planning for volatility in stocks, bonds, real estate, and real life.
This website is based on my book, Juggling with Knives. Both the book and website are about volatility in everything from stocks and bonds to real estate, and real life topics such as jobs and education.
This website keeps the content of the book fresh and the advice and strategies up to date. If you’ve purchased the book, you’ve earned a one-year free subscription. Use the Coupon Code in the book to start your one-year FREE SUBSCRIPTION when you Subscribe on this website.
I run two other investing websites, Jubak Picks and Jubak Asset Management. So how does Juggling With Knives fit in that group? With a subscription at $79 a year you get everything that appears on my free JubakPicks.com website (1 to 2 posts a day plus buys/sells/updates on three portfolios) plus an additional 1 or 2 posts a day, including a special post on volatility on most days, plus access to my new Volatility Portfolio. My premium site, Jubak Asset Management, JubakAM.com to its friends, offers for $199 a year everything on Jubak Picks, plus everything on Juggling With Knives, plus exclusive posts that include Sector Monday, Friday Trick or Trend, Saturday Night Quarterback, and my daily Notes You Can Use Mini Blog. Oh, and videos where my smiling face explains the markets. If you’d like to step up to a JubakAm.com subscription click here. (You’ll get full credit for what you paid to subscribe to Juggling With Knives.)
Yesterday tech tumbled but utilities, commodities like copper and even gold, and many “vaccine recovery” plays gained. Today almost everything is down.
Which to me is a sign that this now 6-day downturn is getting closer to an end. Right now, as of 1:30 a.m. in New York the NASDAQ is off another 2.32%. The brings the drop from the mid-february high to 6%. A little more than half way to a 10% correction. I don’t think we’re at the bottom yet. But I am looking for growth stories–which is not the same as “momentum growth stocks”–where the selling has created an opportunity.
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The eleventh YouTube video “Lessons from the Texas Winter Storm: How to Invest in the Energy Grid” went up today.
Yield on 10-year Treasury climbs to 1.16%–time to rethink some bond market assumptions and to start some selling
A year ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note stood at 1.59%. From that point yields fell, leading to big gains for Treasuries and other bonds. Yields were down to 0.73% as of the week of April 15, 2020. And then hit their low for 2020 during the week of August 2 at 0.55%. Since then the story for long Treasuries has been just the reverse. By October 4, the yields on 10-year Treasuries were back ump to 0.78%. 0.83% by November 1. 0.93% on December 6. And then 1.16% today February 9. The forecast right now is that yields for long Treasuries aren’t done climbing either.
I thought there was a possibility that Vaxart (VXRT) would recover from yesterday’s 60% drop on data from the initial Phase 1 trials of its coronavirus-vaccine-in-a-pill candidate. Especially because the initial reaction over-emphasized, in my opinion, the negatives in that data. But I suspected that yesterday’s downward trend would continue for at least another day and therefore chose to sell Vaxart shares out of my Volatility Portfolio.
As of 3:00 p.m. New York time today, February 3, shares of Vaxart (VXRT) were down 58.50% to $9.69 on news that although its coronavirus vaccine candidate triggered several immune responses, it did not produce the neutralizing antibodies that prevent sa virus from replicating. I will sell shares out of my Volatility Portfolio tomorrow
As of 3:15 p.m. today, February 2, in New York, shares of GameStop (GME)were down 56.22% to $98.50. That a big drop from the January 27 closing high o #347.51, but it’s still significantly above th $17.25 price on January 4. Other stocks that have ridden the Reddit WallStreetBets fever for short squeeze horses are down today too. AMC (AMC) is off 39.70% to $8.02. First Majestic Silver (AG), the big silver play of the last few days, has given up 24.28% to $16.75. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is off 14.64% to $25.77. American Airlines (AAL), an early short squeeze play, slipped 1.16% to $17.65. The only potential short squeeze bet (if it was, that is) that’s still climbing is vaccine pill biotech Vaxart (VXRT), which was up 34.30% at 3:15 and looks to be riding momentum into the close. (The shares were up 54.43% as of 3:40 p.m.) Vaxart does bring this question to mind: So if the money is coming out of GameStop, etc., where is it going?
Ok, I don’t want to see “the next GameStop under every rock.” But Vaxart (VXRT) deserves a look or two. (The stock is a member of my Volatility Portfolio where it’s up 5.27 as of the close on February 1 since I added it to the portfolio on July 22, 2020. I also own shares in my personal portfolio.) Here’s what I see with the shares of this company that is in clinical trials of a vaccine for the coronavirus. Vaxart’s vaccine is a pill and it’s the only vaccine pill under development. Shares of Vaxart are up (as of the February 1 close) 54.93% in the last week and 172.68% in the last month. They’ve added 216.46% in the last 3 months and are up 172.68% for 2021 to date as of the close on February 1. The shares moved up another 29.97% today to $15.57 a share.
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The fourth YouTube video on why this very stretched market will hang in for another six months went up today.
2020 was a great year for Dividend investing: my Dividend Portfolio showed a total return of 15.71% for 2020
It’s unusual, to say the least, to have a dividend portfolio match the returns on the Standard & Poor’s 500–especially in a year when the S&P 500 was setting an all time high–but that’s what happened in 2020. My Dividend Portfolio showed a price gain of 12.28% for 2020. Add in the 3.43% dividend yield and the total return for the portfolio for the year was 15.71.% For the year the S&P 500 returned 16% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 7%.
I’m starting up my videos on–this time using YouTube as a platform. The third YouTube video on What Apple and Microsoft’s moves on Intel mean for technology stocks went up today.