Juggling With Knives: Profits, protection and planning for volatility in stocks, bonds, real estate, and real life.
This website is based on my book, Juggling with Knives. Both the book and website are about volatility in everything from stocks and bonds to real estate, and real life topics such as jobs and education.
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I run two other investing websites, Jubak Picks and Jubak Asset Management. So how does Juggling With Knives fit in that group? With a subscription at $79 a year you get everything that appears on my free JubakPicks.com website (1 to 2 posts a day plus buys/sells/updates on three portfolios) plus an additional 1 or 2 posts a day, including a special post on volatility on most days, plus access to my new Volatility Portfolio. My premium site, Jubak Asset Management, JubakAM.com to its friends, offers for $199 a year everything on Jubak Picks, plus everything on Juggling With Knives, plus exclusive posts that include Sector Monday, Friday Trick or Trend, Saturday Night Quarterback, and my daily Notes You Can Use Mini Blog. Oh, and videos where my smiling face explains the markets. If you’d like to step up to a JubakAm.com subscription click here. (You’ll get full credit for what you paid to subscribe to Juggling With Knives.)
Jubak Top 50
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Post of the Month
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Oil falls to lowest level in five months; Brent breaks below $60 a barrel
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China promises to cut taxes, increase spending to stimulate economy
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Ominous weakening today, September 6, below the surface in U.S. stocks
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This market’s volatility puzzle–it’s as if investors and traders don’t think risk is climbing in the general market
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Next earnings season test after Netflix? Microsoft
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I’m buying the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF in my Perfect 5 Portfolio today
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Second quarter GDP forecasts start to come back to earth
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Here we go again: Argentina and Italy compete to see which can be the next Greece
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Plus, you’ll get Jim’s Volatility Email Update each evening at 8:00pm.
Gold hits a record: Now what?
Spot gold hit an all-time high today to close at $1991.40 an ounce. In July gold rose 11%, the most since 2012. And now even investors and traders who never own gold are looking at the metal and say, “Should I buy? Will it rally some more?” In my opinion it’s late to jump on the band wagon. Gold isn’t about to correct, at least not in the short term, but the big driver for higher gold prices–the weak U.S. dollar–looks closer to a reversal than to another extended move lower. For the near term, I’d look to be a seller with an eye toward buying when the dollar has played out a limited upward move.
Beijing takes one more swipe at overheated Chinese stocks today
The Chinese economy returned to growth in the second quarter with gross domestic product climbing 3.2% in the quarter from the June quarter of 2019. That was a recovery from the 6.8% drop in GDP in the first quarter and the results beat projections for 2.4% growth. Nonetheless, stocks fell in Shanghai and Shenzhen today with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite dropping 4.5% and the CSI 300 index falling 4.81%. As is frequently the case in the Chinese stock markets, driven as they are by individual investors, the money followed pronouncements from state-own media.
So how much worse will things get for Wells Fargo? Continuing to hold my Put Options but maybe taking a little profit
On today’s bad news from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and, especially, Wells Fargo (WFC), the Wells Fargo Put Options (WFC201016P00025000) I hold in my Volatility Portfolio had gained 20.62% to $3.10 as of 2 p.m. New York time today. That still leaves this position underwater since I added these Puts (strike price $25) to the portfolio back on April 6, 2020 at $3.70. But these Puts still have a long time to run
Banks start off earnings season by pouring cold water on V-shaped recovery
“I don’t think anybody should leave any bank earnings call this quarter simply feeling like the worst is absolutely behind us and it’s a rosy path ahead,” Citigroup (C) CEO Michael Corbat said this morning as he announced the bank’s second quarter earnings. “We don’t want people leaving the call simply thinking the world is a great place and it’s a V-shaped recovery.”
Disney parks re-open in Florida as state hits record new coronavirus cases; Hong Kong park closes again
On Sunday, Florida reported the highest single-day total of new coronavirus cases by any state since the start of the pandemic. The 15,299 new cases surpassed the previous high for any state on a single day of 12,274 recorded in New York on April 4. The record comes just one day after Disney re-opened its Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom parks in Orlando.
Wells Fargo to cut thousand more jobs this year; bank reports earnings on July 14
Wells Fargo (WFC) will cut thousands of jobs later this year, Bloomberg reported today. The bank, the largest employers among U.S. banks, is facing intense pressure to cut costs. So far in the coronavirus economic downturn,U.S. banks have resisted large-scale layoffs. Could the move by Wells Fargo be a turning point for the sector?
How I’m positioning ahead of earnings season uncertainty
As I wrote in my earlier Morning Brief, the stock market seems to be selling (generalization I know) what I’m calling “re-opening dependent” stocks. And nervous about the tech stock winners that have led the recent days in this rally ahead of next week’s earnings season. What should you be watching/doing right now?
Wells Fargo says it will cut its current dividend after Fed stress test
Wells Fargo (WFC) said today that it will cut its current 51-cent dividend after the Federal Reserve’s most recent round of stress tests set new limits on dividend payouts and share buybacks. The bank said it will announce the size of the cut on July 14 when it announces quarterly earnings. Analysts expect a cut to 20 cents a share.
An important message on risk from the options market–don’t trust the rally in crushed stocks
Prices on options market are saying that there’s an awful lot of risk in some of the stocks that have soared the most in the rally of the last few weeks. Buyer beware! at this point.
Meituan Dianping shares up 17% today on earnings report
As of 1 p.m. New York time today Meituan Dianping (MPNGF) shares were up 17.52% after the company reported better than forecast sales of 16.8 billion yuan ($2.4 billion) for the quarter that ended on Mach 31. The company reported a lower than projected loss of 1.58 billion yuan ($221 million.) Year over year revenue fell by just 13% in the period.
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