Juggling With Knives: Profits, protection and planning for volatility in stocks, bonds, real estate, and real life.
This website is based on my book, Juggling with Knives. Both the book and website are about volatility in everything from stocks and bonds to real estate, and real life topics such as jobs and education.
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Shares of AbbVie (ABBV) tacked on another 1.32% today to a close at $96 continuing a run that began back on January 31 at $81.02. The trend picked up momentum on February 7 after the company reported fourth quarter earnings with better than expected sales for its blockbuster Humira drug that has picked up competition from biosimilar in Europe. The stock climbed 5.9% that day. Now the shares are getting an added boost from better than expected quarterly numbers from Allergan (AGN). AbbVie is in the process of acquiring the Botox-maker.
I was going to wait until just before Cirrus Logic (CRUS) reported earnings on January 29 before deciding to sell. But with the market trending down on fears of the coronavirus outbreak in China (and increasingly globally), I don’t see the upside in waiting. Also on a pure earnings story and the gains the stock has posted recently I have to wonder if Cirrus Logic isn’t trading on earnings expectations that the company just won’t be able to meet.
I was going to wait until just before Xilinx (XLNX) reported earnings on January 28 before deciding to sell. But with the market trending down on fears of the coronavirus outbreak in China (and increasingly globally), I don’t see the upside in waiting.
I think today is just a pause in the China-coronavirus selling; I’m selling JD.Com out of my Volatility Portfolio today on the bounce.
In my thinking we’ve still got a way to go before markets can breathe a true sigh of relief and put coronavirus fears behind them. And move onto worrying about other things like economic growth rates in China, rising debt levels, and earnings growth for U.S. stocks in the first and second quarters of 2020. I’m using what I think is a bounce, and just a bounce, today to sell a few more stocks with heavy exposure to China and disruptions caused by the coronavirus.
Yesterday when the market was a sea of red, shares of AbbVie (ABBV) were a small beacon of green. Today when, as of 3:40 p.m. most of the market is green, AbbVie is a small spark of red. What’s up?
Yesterday an advisory joint committee at the U.S. Food & Drug Administration voted to reject Nektar’s application for its new non-addictive opioid NKTR-181. The thinking–my thinking–was that the committee had structured the vote so that the most likely outcome was a narrow approval of the drug candidate that required further clinical trials by Nektar. Nope. The advisory committee voted for an outright rejection and the vote wasn’t even close at 27-0 against. Shock #1. Shock #2.
Apple’s iPhone shipments in China grew 18.7% year over year in December to roughly 3.18 million units, according to Bloomberg. (Bloomberg’s calculations are based on data from the China Academy of Information and Communication Technology, a government think tank. The growth rate is especially impressive given a drop in overall smartphone shipments in China of 13.7% ear over year in December.
I don’t know whether you’ve been able to hear it over all the other market noise–All the shouting on Brexit, for example–but there is a distinct and increasingly loud call from Wall Street that 2020 is the year to get back into emerging market assets. I don’t happen to agree with a lot of the thinking about why this is a good move now–but I think the crescendo of sentiment makes it dangerous to stand in the way of these bulls.
Adding JD.Com to my Volatility Portfolio on strength of Singles’ Day performance and ahead of Friday’s earnings report
Last time I owned Alibaba (BABA) e-commerce competitor JD.Com (JD) I got a 25% short-term pop over a matter of a couple of months. I think it’s time to go back to that trade again.
Twilio is my favorite play in the red-hot cloud software platform sector. (To keep you up with the jargon, Twilio is the leading communications platform-as-a-service, or cPaaS, company.) Twilio develops APIs that allow customers’ software developers to add voice communications like phone calls, text messaging via SMS, video, and a wide variety of other types of communications into their software applications.