Juggling With Knives: Profits, protection and planning for volatility in stocks, bonds, real estate, and real life.
This website is based on my book, Juggling with Knives. Both the book and website are about volatility in everything from stocks and bonds to real estate, and real life topics such as jobs and education.
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I run two other investing websites, Jubak Picks and Jubak Asset Management. So how does Juggling With Knives fit in that group? With a subscription at $79 a year you get everything that appears on my free JubakPicks.com website (1 to 2 posts a day plus buys/sells/updates on three portfolios) plus an additional 1 or 2 posts a day, including a special post on volatility on most days, plus access to my new Volatility Portfolio. My premium site, Jubak Asset Management, JubakAM.com to its friends, offers for $199 a year everything on Jubak Picks, plus everything on Juggling With Knives, plus exclusive posts that include Sector Monday, Friday Trick or Trend, Saturday Night Quarterback, and my daily Notes You Can Use Mini Blog. Oh, and videos where my smiling face explains the markets. If you’d like to step up to a JubakAm.com subscription click here. (You’ll get full credit for what you paid to subscribe to Juggling With Knives.)
Post of the Month
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Oil falls to lowest level in five months; Brent breaks below $60 a barrel
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China promises to cut taxes, increase spending to stimulate economy
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Ominous weakening today, September 6, below the surface in U.S. stocks
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This market’s volatility puzzle–it’s as if investors and traders don’t think risk is climbing in the general market
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Next earnings season test after Netflix? Microsoft
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I’m buying the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF in my Perfect 5 Portfolio today
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Plus, you’ll get Jim’s Volatility Email Update each evening at 8:00pm.
Second quarter GDP forecasts start to come back to earth
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Here we go again: Argentina and Italy compete to see which can be the next Greece
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Plus, you’ll get Jim’s Volatility Email Update each evening at 8:00pm.
Adding JD.Com to my Volatility Portfolio on strength of Singles’ Day performance and ahead of Friday’s earnings report
Last time I owned Alibaba (BABA) e-commerce competitor JD.Com (JD) I got a 25% short-term pop over a matter of a couple of months. I think it’s time to go back to that trade again.
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Re-adding tech pick Twilio to my Volatility Portfolio
Twilio is my favorite play in the red-hot cloud software platform sector. (To keep you up with the jargon, Twilio is the leading communications platform-as-a-service, or cPaaS, company.) Twilio develops APIs that allow customers’ software developers to add voice communications like phone calls, text messaging via SMS, video, and a wide variety of other types of communications into their software applications.
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So how’s my “Tech is back” call (and picks of SWKS and CRUS) doing?
On October 8 I wrote “Tech is back” led by fact-based speculation that Apple (AAPL) had asked supplier to increase production of components for the iPhone 11 by 10%. That, obviously, was a good sign for Apple, which is set to announce earnings on October 30. And, I argued even better for Apple suppliers with their lower (and therefore easier to move) market caps and (in many cases) their lower price to earnings ratios. The first pick in that group Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), made on October 8 in my Volatility Portfolio on my subscription JugglingwithKnives.com and JubakAssetManagement.com sites, has done just fine. The stock is up 9.67% as of the close on October 15. My second pick, Cirrus Logic (CRUS) only went into that same portfolio yesterday.
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My second pick for a tech better than Apple: Buying Cirrus Logic for my Volatility Portfolio
Friday, October 11, gave us another preview of tech stocks that would move up more than Apple (AAPL) as that stock itself rallies on reports that iPhone 11 sales are running so strong that Apple has asked supplier to up production by 10%.Apple shares gained 2.66% on Friday. My first pick of a tech stock that will do better than Apple, Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), only gained 0.60% on the day but the shares are up 8.10% since I added them to my Volatility Portfolio on October 8. On Friday, though, the day’s gains drew my attention to Xilinx (XLNX), up 3.67% for the day, and Cirrus Logic (CRUS), ahead 3.39%. My pick for making hay while the sun shines on Apple goes to Cirrus Logic and I’m adding those shares to my Volatility Portfolio on, Monday, October 14
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I think we can call this a data dependent market for Friday
The trend in U.S. financial markets this week has pointed down on data that shows the U.S. economy is slowing. Certainly the disappointing numbers in both the manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers Indexes have supported that conclusion. That could all change with the release of the September jobs numbers tomorrow, Friday, October 3. Or maybe not.
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First Quantum Minerals jumps 15% on speculation that “someone” is interested in an acquisition
Shares of First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF) are finally cheap enough to be drawing the interest of a possible acquirer. At least current management of the company thinks so.
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Nektar’s plunge is a buying opportunity–so I’m adding more to my Volatility Portfolio
What we know about Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) is pretty clear. On Thursday of last week, August 8, trading in shares of Nektar were halted on news from the company had manufacturing problems that resulted in some patients enrolled in the clinical trials for the company’s NKTR-214 cancer drug receiving drugs that were less effective than the correctly manufactured drug. Two of the 22 batches of NKTR-214–Lots 2 and 5 to be precise–were less effective than the other 20 batches and patients given those batches did not respond as well in the trials as those patients who received the correctly formulated batches.
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Selling my Parsley Energy call options out of my Volatility Portfolio
Shares of Permian Basin oil shale producer Parsley Energy (PE) were up 16.45% as of 3 p.m. New York time this afternoon. The company reported second quarter earnings of 32 cents a share (after adjusting for a one-time tax-related gain). Unadjusted earnings came to 41 cents a share, down from 44 cents a share last year. The earnings matched Wall Street projections. Which is all it takes these days when everyone is afraid that low oil prices will send many/some/at least a few U.S. oil shale producers belly-up.
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Selling Pro Shares Short Treasury ETF out of my Volatility Portfolio
I bought this position in the Pro Shares Short 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (TBX) in my Volatility Portfolio on February 2, 2018, back in the days when it looked like the Federal Reserve was firmly locked into a policy of interest rate increases. An interest rate increase pushes down the prices of existing bonds with lower coupon yields–which would produce gains for an ETF like this short Treasury bonds. With the Fed’s reversal of policy course at the end of 2018 and with an interest rate cut almost certain at the Fed’s July 31 meeting, being short Treasuries no longer makes sense. I’ve been adding long Treasury ETFs since the beginning of June while looking for a time to exit this short ETF.
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Using softness to add more Treasury exposure to Volatility Portfolio
Treasury prices have been a little weak over the last two weeks. As a consequence the Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and the Vanguard Short Term Treasury ETF (VGSH), for example, have dropped from highs on June 25 of $66.03 and $60.94, respectively, to $$65.56 and $60.75 at 3 .p.m New York time today. Not much of a slide but still an opportunity to add to or establish positions ahead of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its July 31 and September 18 meetings
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