Juggling With Knives: Profits, protection and planning for volatility in stocks, bonds, real estate, and real life.
This website is based on my book, Juggling with Knives. Both the book and website are about volatility in everything from stocks and bonds to real estate, and real life topics such as jobs and education.
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Way back on January 5 I posted that 2017 looked like a very promising year for technology LEAPS, especially for Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB), two technology stocks where near term volatility has created promising opportunities. And I promised to follow up on what happened with these Apple and Facebook LEAPS as we got close to and then moved beyond the next earnings report. So what’s happened?read more
The IShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is actually up 1.87% in the last five days and up 0.08% in the last month. Which is pretty stunning given that Brazil and Mexico, two of the biggest and more consequential of developing economies, have descended into something near chaos. And the path of those two economies suggests worrying possibilities for other emerging markets such as Turkey and the Philippinesread more
China faces a depreciating currency, a bond market that has switched from rally to sell off, huge outflows of cash, and what looks like a resurgence of inflation.Fixing one of these problems alone would be a huge challenge to the People’s Bank. The combination leaves the central bank with a situation where fixing one problem may just make the others worse. Increasingly the People’s Bank looks like it is rushing from problem to problem, giving the crisis-of-day a whack and then rushing to figure out what’s likely to pop up next that will deserve a bash with the mallet. As anyone who has ever played the boardwalk game Whac-A-Mole knows, this kind of frenzy usually doesn’t result in anything good.read more
It’s not like there isn’t any volatility in the financial markets, ya know. The Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates for the first time in 2016. The euro is tanking. The Italian government just collapsed. Oil prices have rallied on an OPEC production deal nobody really trusts. And the President-elect has managed to rile and/or confuse China and a good bit of the rest of the world–including the leaders of his own party who aren’t sure what to make of his call for a 35% tariff that could well set off a trade war. Yet with all of this, the Chicago Board Options Exchange S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) continues to drop lower almost every day.read more
The entire energy sector was up today–but not every stock rose to the same degree. I think these themes defined the way that the market grouped stocks in the energy sector. Big gains went to U.S. oil from shale producers–and especially to producers with big positions in the low-cost Permian Basin.read more
Think the election is making the markets a little nervous? Just look at the VIX fear index–how much higher can the price of fear go?
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) soared another 8.79% today to 18.56 on news that a ABC News/Washington Post poll put Republican Donald Trump ahead of Democrat Hilary Clinton 46% to 45%, and on another inexplicable release from the FBI, this time of the record of its closed 2005 investigation of President Bill Clinton’s end of term pardon of fugitive financier Marc Rich. On October 24 the VIX closed at 13.02.read more
Thursday the Wall Street Journal reported that Qualcomm (QCOM) was in talks to buy NXP Semiconductor (NXPI) for somewhere around $30 billion or roughly $90 a share. On Friday Bloomberg reported that NXP had hired an investment bank for advice on any offer. For Qualcomm the deal would be a smart moveread more