Juggling With Knives: Profits, protection and planning for volatility in stocks, bonds, real estate, and real life.

This website is based on my book, Juggling with Knives. Both the book and website are about volatility in everything from stocks and bonds to real estate, and real life topics such as jobs and education.

This website keeps the content of the book fresh and the advice and strategies up to date. If you’ve purchased the book, you’ve earned a one-year free subscription. Use the Coupon Code in the book to start your one-year FREE SUBSCRIPTION when you Subscribe on this website.

I run two other investing websites, Jubak Picks and Jubak Asset Management. So how does Juggling With Knives fit in that group? With a subscription at $79 a year you get everything that appears on my free JubakPicks.com website (1 to 2 posts a day plus buys/sells/updates on three portfolios) plus an additional 1 or 2 posts a day, including a special post on volatility on most days, plus access to my new Volatility Portfolio. My premium site, Jubak Asset Management, JubakAM.com to its friends, offers for $199 a year everything on Jubak Picks, plus everything on Juggling With Knives, plus exclusive posts that include Sector Monday, Friday Trick or Trend, Saturday Night Quarterback, and my daily Notes You Can Use Mini Blog. Oh, and videos where my smiling face explains the markets. If you’d like to step up to a JubakAm.com subscription click here. (You’ll get full credit for what you paid to subscribe to Juggling With Knives.)

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Post of the Month

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Ominous weakening today, September 6, below the surface in U.S. stocks

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This market’s volatility puzzle–it’s as if investors and traders don’t think risk is climbing in the general market

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Next earnings season test after Netflix? Microsoft

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I’m buying the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF in my Perfect 5 Portfolio today

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Second quarter GDP forecasts start to come back to earth

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Here we go again: Argentina and Italy compete to see which can be the next Greece

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Best performing ETF in my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio? PowerShares KBW Bank Portfolio

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This market indicator is signaling trouble ahead–in 2020 (Strange: That’s the same year the CBO estimates the annual U.S. budget deficit will hit $1 trillion.)

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My third pick for my new ETF portfolio: A gold ETF

For my third pick for my new Perfect 5 ETF Active Passive Portfolio I looked to fill the Commodities slot in the portfolio with an ETF that would provide a hedge for the portfolio if the market tumbled but that would also produce a positive return if the market didn’t fall but other recent trends continued. The pick that achieves those two goals is the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)

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My second pick for my new Perfect 5 ETF portfolio, a European stock ETF

For my second pick for my new actively allocated, passive ETF portfolio, I’m going to keep working on the equity core. To yesterday’s pick of the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), today I’m adding the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ). This ETF concentrates on European blue chip stocks and tracks the Stoxx 50 Net Return Index. This ETF will fill the Non-U.S. Developed Markets slot in the portfolio. Why a European stock fund?

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Why a portfolio of “passive” ETFs requires active management by you–announcing my new ETF portfolio to do just that

Can I clear up one bit of confusion? ETFs are indeed passively managed investment vehicles. Their portfolios passively follow indexes rather than allocating money into the picks of a fund manager. But portfolios of ETFs put together by investors aren’t–and indeed can’t be–passively managed. And that’s why, this week, I’m launching my new Perfect 5 Active Passive ETF portfolio.

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Oh no! for oil prices–U.S. shale producers hedge above $50 a barrel

U.S. oil producers have hedged more of their oil production in the last two weeks than in the last four to five months. In August a sample of 43 large and small U.S. producers had hedged just 23% of 2018 production. But now with West Texas Intermediate back above $52 a barrel (the U.S. crude benchmark was at $52.06 at 3:49 p.m. New York time today), producers have rushed to finish hedging 2017 production, and the bulk of their 2018 production, and started to establish hedges for 2019.

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What would a Trump Fed do?

Another day, another vacancy on the Federal Reserve for President Donald Trump to fill. That adds previous three vacancies on the seven-member board of governors. The seat for the vice chair in charge of financial supervision is empty, although Trump has nominated Randal Quarles for the slot. The slot for governor for community banking is vacant and the administration hasn’t sent a name to Congress for confirmation. A third governor’s position is also open.And then, of course, there’s the big vacancy that will occur when the term of current Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen ends on February 3. (Although Yellen’s term as a Fed governor doesn’t expire until 2024.) The four open seats–plus the end of Yellen’s term as chair–give Trump an extraordinary opportunity to shape the Fed–and policy at the world’s most powerful central bank.

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No volatility anywhere

By this time you’re certainly aware that volatility in the U.S. stock market is near record lows. (It’a actually below record lows when you recalibrate the VIX for revisions to that index.) But the lack of volatility in the bond market may have escaped your attention. It’s even more pronounced than the lows in the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX.)

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Worry about central banks gains weight

Today it’s JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon telling a conference in Paris that the unwinding of central bank bond-buying programs is an unprecedented challenge that may be more disruptive than people think. Tomorrow (and Thursday) it’s Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen giving Congress some clue (maybe) on when the Fed will begin to reduce its $4.5 trillion portfolio of Treasury and mortgage-backed debt instruments.

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Stock Trader's Almanac Best Investing Book 2016

Juggling With Knives

This website is based on my book, Juggling with Knives. Both the book and website are about volatility in everything from stocks and bonds to real estate, and real life topics such as jobs and education.

This website keeps the content of the book fresh and the advice and strategies up to date. If you've purchased the book, you've earned a one year free subscription. Use the Coupon Code in the book to start your FREE subscription when you Subscribe on this website.