Juggling With Knives: Profits, protection and planning for volatility in stocks, bonds, real estate, and real life.
This website is based on my book, Juggling with Knives. Both the book and website are about volatility in everything from stocks and bonds to real estate, and real life topics such as jobs and education.
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Back in October 2017 I set up a very simple portfolio of 5 ETFs with the goal of beating the performance of a Standard & Poor’s 500 ETF (so that’s the benchmark) with less risk (because of the added diversification.) I said that I would rebalance this portfolio as needed–or on a six month schedule (which ever came first.) But that this would be a relatively passive portfolio of passive ETFs–but with some active management thrown in by way of those shifting allocations. Well, the portfolio certainly isn’t six months old, but we have flipped the calendar page into 2018 so I’m going to do the first performance report now and at the same time do an initial rebalancing of assets.read more
2017 left investors with a huge challenge as we all move into 2018. After a 21.6% return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 stocks in 2017, do we let the money ride for 2018 or move it into other assets? Some stocks had almost unbelievable years in 2017. Amazon (AMZN) was up 56% for the year an Facebook (FB) climbed 53%. But those gains were left in the dust by the 96% gain on Alibaba (BABA) and the 115% racked up by Tencent Holdings (TCEHY). And even stocks seem to be standing still in comparison to biotech such as Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL), up 510% in 2017 or Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) ahead by 466%. For 2018 should you leave your money in those big winners from last year? Take some of it off the table and put it into laggards? Move some of it to cash?read more
Two robotics and automation ETFs–if you’d prefer that route to buying Fanuc and Nidec in my 50 Stocks Portfolio
Back on July 11 I argued that for investors at least it was better to buy robotics stocks than to try to fight the global trend toward automation. I added two robotics stocks, both Japanese companies, to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio that day. Since then Fanuc (FANUY) is up 27.92% and Nidec (NJDCY) is ahead 34.23%. But the evidence is that a lot of investors want to own a piece of the sector but would be prefer to use an ETF to give them broad exposure to the sector. Launched in 2013, Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO) how has nearly $2 billion in assets under management. Global X Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Thematic (BOTZ) moved above $1 billion in assets back in August.read more
Pick the biggest stock market turkey. Win $1000. By and large, 2017 has been a great year for stocks. Amazon (AMZN), for example, is up 50.68% for 2017 as of the close on November 17. Casting our nets wider, the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is ahead 14.22%But that doesn’t mean every stock has gone up this year. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), to mention just one retailer, is down 49.01% in 2017. We’re entering the strong end of year season for stocks. From 1928 to 2017 U.S.stocks have climbed 72% of the time in December, the best performance during any single month. But there are signs of risk at the edges of the market. Investors have been rotating out of wobbling sectors and into sectors with a little momentum at the drop of a crystal ball. So put on your wizard’s hat and pick the biggest turkey for the three months beginning on December 1 and ending on March 1. Pick the biggest stock market turkey and Jubak Picks/Juggling with Knives/Jubak Asset Management–in other words, me–will award you $1,000 in cashread more
Shares of Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) are up another 16% this morning to $37.89 as of noon New York time on data presented this weekend at the annual meeting of the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer from an early trial of Nektar’s NKTR-214. The data looked at the efficacy and safety of NKTR-214 in combination with Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (BMY) Opdivo. Opdivos a PD-1 immune checkpoint inhibitor designed to overcome immune suppression. NKTR-214 is a immuno-stimulatory drug candidate designed to expand and activate specific cancer-fighting T cells and natural killer cells directly in the tumor.read more
My fifth pick for my new Perfect 5 ETF portfolio: iShares Emerging Markets (EEM) but with a caveat or two
I’m illustrating this post on adding the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) with a Chinese flag because that’s what you get (China) with this “diversified” emerging markets ETF. 10 of the first 20 stocks, ranked by percentage of the portfolio each holding makes up, is a Chinese company.read more
Now we get to a really, really hard pick. It’s so hard because our rules, assumptions, and portfolio allocations for fixed income assets is so heavily influenced by a fifteen year period that’s now over. Done with. Gone.read more
For my third pick for my new Perfect 5 ETF Active Passive Portfolio I looked to fill the Commodities slot in the portfolio with an ETF that would provide a hedge for the portfolio if the market tumbled but that would also produce a positive return if the market didn’t fall but other recent trends continued. The pick that achieves those two goals is the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)read more
For my second pick for my new actively allocated, passive ETF portfolio, I’m going to keep working on the equity core. To yesterday’s pick of the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), today I’m adding the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ). This ETF concentrates on European blue chip stocks and tracks the Stoxx 50 Net Return Index. This ETF will fill the Non-U.S. Developed Markets slot in the portfolio. Why a European stock fund?read more
Let’s start with the core of any ETF portfolio for a U.S.-based investor: U.S. equities. But what’s the choice for the next, say, six months? In 2017 the major indexes have taken turns leading the pack.read more