Juggling With Knives: Profits, protection and planning for volatility in stocks, bonds, real estate, and real life.
This website is based on my book, Juggling with Knives. Both the book and website are about volatility in everything from stocks and bonds to real estate, and real life topics such as jobs and education.
This website keeps the content of the book fresh and the advice and strategies up to date. If you’ve purchased the book, you’ve earned a one-year free subscription. Use the Coupon Code in the book to start your one-year FREE SUBSCRIPTION when you Subscribe on this website.
I run two other investing websites, Jubak Picks and Jubak Asset Management. So how does Juggling With Knives fit in that group? With a subscription at $79 a year you get everything that appears on my free JubakPicks.com website (1 to 2 posts a day plus buys/sells/updates on three portfolios) plus an additional 1 or 2 posts a day, including a special post on volatility on most days, plus access to my new Volatility Portfolio. My premium site, Jubak Asset Management, JubakAM.com to its friends, offers for $199 a year everything on Jubak Picks, plus everything on Juggling With Knives, plus exclusive posts that include Sector Monday, Friday Trick or Trend, Saturday Night Quarterback, and my daily Notes You Can Use Mini Blog. Oh, and videos where my smiling face explains the markets. If you’d like to step up to a JubakAm.com subscription click here. (You’ll get full credit for what you paid to subscribe to Juggling With Knives.)
Pick the biggest stock market turkey. Win $1000. By and large, 2017 has been a great year for stocks. Amazon (AMZN), for example, is up 50.68% for 2017 as of the close on November 17. Casting our nets wider, the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is ahead 14.22%But that doesn’t mean every stock has gone up this year. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), to mention just one retailer, is down 49.01% in 2017. We’re entering the strong end of year season for stocks. From 1928 to 2017 U.S.stocks have climbed 72% of the time in December, the best performance during any single month. But there are signs of risk at the edges of the market. Investors have been rotating out of wobbling sectors and into sectors with a little momentum at the drop of a crystal ball. So put on your wizard’s hat and pick the biggest turkey for the three months beginning on December 1 and ending on March 1. Pick the biggest stock market turkey and Jubak Picks/Juggling with Knives/Jubak Asset Management–in other words, me–will award you $1,000 in cashread more
Shares of Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) are up another 16% this morning to $37.89 as of noon New York time on data presented this weekend at the annual meeting of the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer from an early trial of Nektar’s NKTR-214. The data looked at the efficacy and safety of NKTR-214 in combination with Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (BMY) Opdivo. Opdivos a PD-1 immune checkpoint inhibitor designed to overcome immune suppression. NKTR-214 is a immuno-stimulatory drug candidate designed to expand and activate specific cancer-fighting T cells and natural killer cells directly in the tumor.read more
My fifth pick for my new Perfect 5 ETF portfolio: iShares Emerging Markets (EEM) but with a caveat or two
I’m illustrating this post on adding the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) with a Chinese flag because that’s what you get (China) with this “diversified” emerging markets ETF. 10 of the first 20 stocks, ranked by percentage of the portfolio each holding makes up, is a Chinese company.read more
Now we get to a really, really hard pick. It’s so hard because our rules, assumptions, and portfolio allocations for fixed income assets is so heavily influenced by a fifteen year period that’s now over. Done with. Gone.read more
For my third pick for my new Perfect 5 ETF Active Passive Portfolio I looked to fill the Commodities slot in the portfolio with an ETF that would provide a hedge for the portfolio if the market tumbled but that would also produce a positive return if the market didn’t fall but other recent trends continued. The pick that achieves those two goals is the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)read more
For my second pick for my new actively allocated, passive ETF portfolio, I’m going to keep working on the equity core. To yesterday’s pick of the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), today I’m adding the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ). This ETF concentrates on European blue chip stocks and tracks the Stoxx 50 Net Return Index. This ETF will fill the Non-U.S. Developed Markets slot in the portfolio. Why a European stock fund?read more
Let’s start with the core of any ETF portfolio for a U.S.-based investor: U.S. equities. But what’s the choice for the next, say, six months? In 2017 the major indexes have taken turns leading the pack.read more
Why a portfolio of “passive” ETFs requires active management by you–announcing my new ETF portfolio to do just that
Can I clear up one bit of confusion? ETFs are indeed passively managed investment vehicles. Their portfolios passively follow indexes rather than allocating money into the picks of a fund manager. But portfolios of ETFs put together by investors aren’t–and indeed can’t be–passively managed. And that’s why, this week, I’m launching my new Perfect 5 Active Passive ETF portfolio.read more
U.S. oil producers have hedged more of their oil production in the last two weeks than in the last four to five months. In August a sample of 43 large and small U.S. producers had hedged just 23% of 2018 production. But now with West Texas Intermediate back above $52 a barrel (the U.S. crude benchmark was at $52.06 at 3:49 p.m. New York time today), producers have rushed to finish hedging 2017 production, and the bulk of their 2018 production, and started to establish hedges for 2019.read more
Another day, another vacancy on the Federal Reserve for President Donald Trump to fill. That adds previous three vacancies on the seven-member board of governors. The seat for the vice chair in charge of financial supervision is empty, although Trump has nominated Randal Quarles for the slot. The slot for governor for community banking is vacant and the administration hasn’t sent a name to Congress for confirmation. A third governor’s position is also open.And then, of course, there’s the big vacancy that will occur when the term of current Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen ends on February 3. (Although Yellen’s term as a Fed governor doesn’t expire until 2024.) The four open seats–plus the end of Yellen’s term as chair–give Trump an extraordinary opportunity to shape the Fed–and policy at the world’s most powerful central bank.read more